Never Again

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Sunday, June 21, 2009

Situation in IRAN

Posted by JewishRefugee

Coming to the elections in Iran we had elections take place in Lebanon. Before the elections in Lebanon majority of experts gave the victory to Hezbollah but their surprise Hezbollah lost to the pro-Western camp of Lebanon. That was a huge blow to Ayatollah’s regime in Iran and its president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad who poured billions of dollars to Lebanon in support of Hezbollah. The problem they faced was what would have happened if hard-line lunatic Mahmoud Ahmadinejad lost to the reformist Mir Hossein Mousavi. You might rightly ask he is the same as Mahmoud Ahmadinejad when it comes to the nuclear programs so he cannot be a reformist. I will address this legit question a little bit further into the post. But coming back to what if Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did lose what could have been the consequences for the world, U.S.A., Israel, Syria, Radical Islam in the Middle East and around the world? In simplistic terms it would have been different for everyone. For the U.S.A. it would mean that they have a better dialogue partner to open the diplomatic channel and shun Israel off. For Israel it would have been a huge blow since majority of its offense against Iranian nuclear programs is built upon Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s hateful speeches “wipe Israel of the map” and denial of Holocaust. Thus, by eliminating Mahmoud Ahmadinejad it would stump Israel in its efforts to isolate and eventually attack Iran. For radical elements it would probably be about the same support financially and militarily because we have to remember Mir Hossein Mousavi would have remained under the Ayatollah who as we know is the Supreme Leader who makes all of the final decisions. Suffice it say, election of Mir Hossein Mousavi under previous conditions would have meant that the ugly face of the regime would have been covered by Mir Hossein Mousavi supposed reformist stance, that would have allowed for them to complete their nuclear program. Therefore, the victory of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was a at the minimum a positive outcome for the efforts to stop Iranian Nuclear Program.

I want to clarify or perhaps highlight that the president of Iran is not leader of the country Ayatollah Khamenei has the final say in everything including foreign and domestic policies. With that in mind, what is the meaning of what is happening in Iran as we speak?

1. The Ayatollahs of Iran are split (this is major).

2. People are tired of poverty, isolation, and oppression.

3. Mir Hossein Mousavi reborn!

Beginning with the first point, Ayatollahs are split in two camps Khamenei and Rafsanjani. The reason for the split is because Khamenei enjoys stability under hardliner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad thus he wants to keep him at all costs. On the other hand, Rafsanjani camp is terrified by Ahmadinejad’s militarization of the government and the country. Majority of the key posts in Iran have been given to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad friends from Basij and other organizations when he took over after Khatami. Thus, this contributed to the power decline of the Ayatollahs of Iran. We have to understand that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is not religious leader he is a hardcore thug. This threat to their power made Ahmadinejad as an unlikable character to the Rafsanjani camp. So we have Ayatollah Khamenei who likes the stability with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Ayatollah Rafsanjani whose power is declining. This has never occurred since 1979, although protests have taken previously the Ayatollahs were always as one against the protesters. (This factor or a crack is different and it is important to take a note of it)

The second point, that the people of Iran are tired of poverty, isolation, and oppression and now the arranged vote. For all of its faults we have to give Iran credit for having legit elections in the past. After all, Khatami became the president in 1997 even though he was not supported by the Ayatollah Khamenei. The Iranian people took the dire economic situation because it was their choice when it came to the elections; we have to understand that economy might not be number one factor when people are voting. But this time around it was different. The elections were engineered no doubt about it. The landslide itself explains that it was rigged. If it was a close race the protesters might have been alright with Mahmoud Ahmadinejad winning but when they saw unbelievable the over 60% win it was the blow to the core of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Furthermore, when the religious supreme leader approved the elections as the divine outcome it has made people even more irritated. In other words, the religious supreme leader is covering a false election by using the divine. Dishonesty and Divine is oxymoron. The people of Iran finally decided it was enough since the supreme leader is now untruthful so they began to revolt.

Well in order to revolt you need a figure behind who you can stand and support. That brings us to the point number three, Mir Hossein Mousavi reborn! The reason, I use the word reborn because Mir Hossein Mousavi has changed between who he was coming to the elections and who he is now after the elections. As I have mentioned above that if Mousavi won the elections and became Iranian president at the first place he would have been just a cover up for the Ayatollah Khamenei regime. But this cannot happen anymore since the threshold has been passed and is at the point of no return. Mousavi has openly challenged the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. The Ayatollah has threatened Mousavi with excommunication or exile. The Ayatollah Khamenei when addressing the nation during the prayers was not joined by neither Mousavi nor Rafsanjani the head of a very power council in Iran. Rafsanjani’s family members are being arrested. But more importantly the people who protested at the beginning with “Where is my vote?” not they protest by saying “Death to Khamenei.” We can clearly see that the situation in Iran has deteriorated beyond imaginable. Mousavi understands that he cannot be the Mousavi who was going into the elections (under Khamenei figure) and this is not what people want. So he will change. That said, we have a post-protest Mousavi effect that has taken place. He does not have another option because the people does not want the old regime of the Khamenei nor they want the old Mousavi; they want reform.

Last but not least, is whether this protest will overcome the Khamenei or it will be overcome by Khamenei? Honestly, I do not think anyone knows and I am not an exception. But one thing is for sure that Iran is not going to be the Iran we knew prior to the election of 2009. Once there is a crack no matter how much you cover it or glue it, it will remain there forever as a vulnerability of the Ayatollah Khamenei Regime. That said I wish the people of Iran strength and continued determination that they have demonstrated already. After all, tenths of lives have been lost already. I hope you realize your dream of freedom if that is what you seek.

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