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Saturday, April 18, 2009

The New Fault Line of the Middle East!

Posted by JewishRefugee


The Middle East, Near East, or the Asia Minor consists of different sphere of influences:

First being, the Shiite versus the Sunni spheres in other words Iran (Persian) versus the Saudi Arabia (Arabs),

Second being, Jewish versus the Islamic spheres, and

Finally, pro-Western versus anti-Western spheres,

Confusing as it might sound it is pretty simple, after Iraq as a Sunni Led counterforce against the Iran Shiite Led power ceased to serve its counterforce purpose (Invasion of Iraq 2003), Iran started slowly crawling out above the surface as the only powerful Muslim country in the Middle East.

The consequences of this developments are dire not only for Israel but more so for the Arabic and Sunni faction of the Middle East.

For example Syria (Arab country) is under the thumb of the Iranian Ayatollahs’, Lebanon is under the Hezbollah that represent and sponsored (money and training) by the Iranian faction. Another interesting side to analyze is Hamas and Fatah, after all Hamas (Arabs) is the Iran while Fatah is from the other camp. In addition, we have media Al-Arabia versus Al-Jazeera that belong to two opposing camps.

Fault Line:
Now that we have covered the rudimentary principles of these spheres of influences that have already formed, let us discuss the current situation in Egypt that has declared Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas, Qatar, and others in a conspiracy to overthrow Mubarak’s regime in Egypt. Well that is the same policy that has been successfully implanted in Lebanon.
At any rate, Egypt has reacted so strongly against a fellow Muslim country so openly? Why?
I understand why but I want to emphasize the openness of this reaction. What is with openness?
Could it be that the Arab-Sunni bloc is afraid of growing Iranian grip and influence that is encroaching slowly? Could it be that, Iran is about to develop a nuclear bomb that will threaten the security of those regimes? Or is it the Washington’s new appeasement approach that was and is the only guarantor of the Arab-Sunni block?

It is probably combination of all of those theories, but greater part falls on the latter one. Washington has indicated that Iran might be able to keep its nuclear program and perhaps develop nuclear bombs.

That has contributed to a nervous reaction through the Arab World that is now disappointed by this acceptance of nuclear Iran. So if it is not for United States, who else can do the dirty laundry for Arab-Sunni world?

The answer is the so-called arch-enemy of the Muslim World ISRAEL. Israel is the only party that has the interest and the capabilities to do it.

So that reminds us of the proverb that is widely popular in the Middle East, “enemy of my enemy is my friend.” Just in this case we have shifts in the tectonic plates in regards who the enemy and the friend now. For the Arab-Sunni world Iran is the enemy and Israel is the friend. The convenience friend in this dire situation for the Arab-Sunni world is Israel.

But in that part of the world everything is about bargain a.k.a. bargain diplomacy. Israel has found itself in a risky situation with Iranian growing influence but with risks come opportunities; the greater the risks, the greater the opportunities. Israel can offer to take out Iran which also coincides with Israel’s interests, but for that to happen the Arab-Sunni side has to offer something in return.

The possibilities are numerous but one that Netanyahu and his administration can ask for is for the Arab world to forget about the creation of the Palestinian State, to accept the Jewish State of Israel, and finally normalize diplomatic and economic cooperation.

After all by blaming Israel for every failure of the Islamic World has not made that part of the world better. On the contrary, it only has fueled Iranian propaganda machine that uses that exact the same theory to turn that region into the pro-Iranian battle field against the current establishment of the Arab-Sunni World.

With that in mind, we can touch on the last part of the spheres of influence that is pro-Western versus anti-Western camps. Whether you want it or not, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, and others are considered to be pro-Western oriented while the opposition to that is Iran, Syria, and others. Note that all of those countries could not become all pro-Western due to the first sphere of influence mentioned above that hold priority over the rest. The switch is possible, but no hegemony, in other words by some unexpected developments Iran and Syria will join America while the other team will have no choice but to live U.S. or to live under Iranian domination (unacceptable).

Now that we have established the pro-Western and anti-Western camps in the Middle East, let us fill in one more puzzle piece that is Israel. Israel represents Western way of life, so by default in a geopolitical sense Israel and pro-Western elements of the Middle East will join forces together (economic, diplomatic, military) to fight the common aggressor in that region which is Iran.

By no means I am saying that Iran will join the West, since in 1979, Iran swore to fight the West. By no means am I saying that after the operation has taken place the Arabs will embrace Israel as the savior of the Arab-Sunni world. Opposite is possible but the possibilities are numerous and one should take into serious considerations the possible developments.

Unfortunately, the time is running out, I hope the Middle East has decisive leaders to make those decisions within a year. The Iranian problem got out of the control and no one expected for the situation to develop to quickly to become a crisis.

Israel and the Arab-Sunni world have to contribute for their own sake.

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